COVID-19 cases to surge in mid-August: Experts

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India may see another rise in COVID-19 cases in mid of August, with the third wave peaking, with less than 1,00,000 in the best cases scenario and nearly 1,50,000 infections a day in the worst situation.

A study by a group of researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur have predicted that India is likely to witness another rise in COVID-19 cases in August. However, they have also said that it is possible to be less brutal than the second wave, where cases rose to 4 lakhs daily.

Earlier, Dr. Samiran Panda, Head of Epidemiology and infectious diseases at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said that if the third wave of COVID-19 occurs, it will hit sometime around August-end.

“There might be a third as it is not inevitable than the second wave. If the third wave happens, it will hit sometime around August-end, and it is not inevitable,” said Dr. Panda.

Dr. Panda also said, “When will the third wave come and how severe it can be all these questions are related to many factors which are not known to the full extent.”

Manindra Agrawal, Professor, IIT Kanpur, said, “In August, the number of cases will start increasing. Till October, they will reach a peak. This peak can be of two types. If the variant is more infectious, then the peak can be more like the first wave. If the variants are not that infectious, then the cases will not be that much.”

India reported 40,134 new cases of COVID-19 and 422 deaths in the last 24 hours, as per the Union Health Ministry on Monday.

The total number of cases currently stands at 3,16,95,958. The death toll has climbed to 4,24,773. The number of active cases of COVID-19 in the country is 4,13,718.

A total of 36,946 patients recovered in the last 24 hours and 3,08,57,467 people have recovered from COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. This constitutes an overall recovery rate of 97.35 percent.

Less than 50,000 daily new cases have been reported since thirty-six continuous days. This is a result of sustained and collaborative efforts by the Centre, the States, and UTs.

The Centre has currently directed 10 states, including Kerala, Maharashtra, and northeastern regions to take steps to control the spread of the disease.

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